NI Housing Market Update: Q4 2023

Introducing the Q4 2023 edition of our Northern Ireland Housing Market Update, where we examine the latest trends and developments in the Northern Ireland housing market. This report offers a thorough analysis of market performance, providing essential insights for buyers, sellers, and industry professionals.

Jordan Buchanan, Chief Executive Officer at PropertyPal commented on the housing market: 

Last year ended more robustly than expected given the challenging economic conditions in the opening half of the year. For most of 2023, inflation was close to double digit territory, economic growth was muted and successive base rate hikes pushed mortgage rates over 5-6%. Despite this, newly agreed sales increased by 16% vs Q4 2022 levels, highlighting the underlying positive sentiment still prevailing in the market. Furthermore, demand (as measured by enquiries sent to estate agents for their listed properties), is 30% higher than last year and the average time to find a buyer is about 10 days faster than the longer term average. To add to the positive news, gradually improving inflation levels has created competitiveness in the lending markets with many mortgage rates sitting in the 4% range. These conditions give some more optimism for a more active market in 2024. 

On the other hand, it would be careless to think that the full economic implications have been experienced. With inflation still double the Bank of England’s target and proving sticky, expect to see rates sitting at higher levels for much of 2024. The Bank also estimates around half of mortgaged households are yet to refinance their deals on the higher rates. As this happens, this disposable income will be sucked out of spending in a consumer driven economy. In addition, supply issues remain a stubborn challenge. New listings for sale are largely back to typical levels but much more is required to offset the erosion of stock levels of recent years. 

On the pricing front, PropertyPal’s index suggests an increase of 4.2% over the last year. This is very similar to the Nationwide index which suggests growth of 4.5%. This compares to a UK wide fall of approximately 2%. It is very difficult to estimate pricing activity in the coming 12 months given uncertainty around interest rates and a General Election with some likely giveaways. Based on the current economic data, it is unlikely to see any meaningful growth in prices, but perhaps a more meaningful uplift in overall levels of activity.

Thank you for reading! If you're interested in learning more about PropertyPal's market reports or need additional information on the Northern Ireland housing market, please reach out to us at [email protected]. A member of our team will be happy to assist you.

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